All month long, I have been preaching that September is one of the most profitable times of the year to bet on Major League Baseball. And even with my own lofty expectations, what we have been able to do this month has been borderline absurd. We have been cashing tickets and getting the money on a daily basis, and yesterday was no different, as we again scooped the world, with not 1, but 2 parlay of the day winning bets.
The first winner came in on our 3-team all totals parlay and paid out a juicy $700! That bet came in with winners on the Orioles/Phillies under 8 (-110), Astros/Angels over 9 (-110), and Cardinals/Brewers under 8 (-110). We have been stupid hot on totals bets this month, and the wins are really starting to pile up.
#THATSAWINNER 👏👏👏 pic.twitter.com/jCNR6kuKDM
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 21, 2021
The other winner on the day reinforced the power of the underdog, as we snatched up a jumbo $727 payout on just a 2-team ticket. Why did that ticket payout so well? We picked up winners on the Cardinals (+185) and the Mariners (+155), and you can see that when you start parlaying big underdogs, that the payouts can get really big, really fast! Today, we will get right back on the grind, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians (-150)
The Cleveland Indians disappointed yesterday, as they got swept in a scheduled doubleheader by the lowly Kansas City Royals. Had the Tribe managed to win both games yesterday, they would have gotten back to the right side of .500 with just a handful of games left on their regular season schedule. Instead, they drop to 73-76 on the year and will look to salvage at least a game or two in game 3 of this 4-game series.
Luckily for Cleveland fans, the Indians will start their ace tonight, in Cal Quantrill. For those of you out there that think it might be a bit early to call Quantrill an ace, you must not be paying very close attention to the 26-year-old, as he has been phenomenal in the 2nd half for Cleveland. Since the All-Star break, Quantrill has an elite ERA of just 2.18. Since moving into the starting rotation, he is 6-1 and is quickly looking like a guy that can lead this Cleveland rotation for years to come.
A monster home run from our shortstop last night. 😳#OurCLE pic.twitter.com/8xH2VCqYob
— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) September 21, 2021
The Royals will try and match Quantrill with Daniel Lynch. Lynch was pitching his brains out in August, but he has hit that rookie wall here in September, as he is 0-2 with a 9.28 ERA in 2 starts this month. Lynch actually made his Big League debut earlier this season against Cleveland, and things didn’t go well for him, as he got roughed up for 3 runs, all earned, all 4 hits, and 4 walks, in just 4.2 innings pitched.
Those 2 wins by the Royals yesterday were about as fluky as you can get. The Indians are the far superior team, and the Royals have been terrible on the road all season long. But in baseball, we see a lot of short-term variance like this, and I have to expect that the variance will swing back the other direction today, with Cal Quantrill getting the nod for Cleveland. Yesterday’s sweep has kept today’s line manageable, and I will take advantage of it with a play on Cleveland.
San Francisco Giants (-105) at San Diego Padres
The San Diego Padres are playing it close to the vest in this series, as they haven’t named a starter for tonight’s game or any other game in this series for that matter. It is understandable that the Padres are keeping things hush-hush, as they need to win this series badly if they want to backdoor into the National League playoffs, and every little advantage helps.
While we don’t know who the Padres are going to start, we do know who the Giants are going to go with, and that is Cy Young Award contender Kevin Gausman. Gausman is having a career year for the G-Men, with a 14-6 record, 2.78 ERA, and 208 Ks. He got knocked around by the Padres a little bit in his last start, but on the year, he is 2-1 with a 2.63 ERA in 4 starts against the Friars.
Right on the money 🎯⛔️ pic.twitter.com/4Fq8gqxMEL
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 19, 2021
The Padres have a couple of choices in this one. They can go with a bullpen day, which they used in their previous series against the Giants when Gausman pitched. Or, they can start Joe Musgrove, who should be rested and ready to pitch if they decide to call upon him. My gut says that the Padres go with the bullpen day, and if that ends up being the case, the value on the Giants is outrageous.
And in reality, I don’t really care who is starting for the Padres, as the Giants are the best team in baseball, and with Kevin Gausman starting, there isn’t a starter on this Padres roster that would scare me away from a play on San Francisco. I very rarely make plays without knowing who is going to be playing in the game, but the Giants are too good to pass up on as underdogs. Give me the G-men.
Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (-145)
Wins have been hard to come by for the Marlins this season, but last night’s come from behind win had to be refreshing for Marlins fans. Miami fell behind early and forced extra innings when they tied the game up in the bottom of the 7th inning. In extra frames, the Marlins walked it off on a wild pitch to give them the unlikely win and something for the fans to cheer about for once.
Miami will try and build on that momentum tonight in game 2 of this 3-game set versus the Nationals, with budding young star Trevor Rogers getting the start. Rogers is having a very successful rookie season for Miami, with a more than respectable 2.71 ERA. Marlins management seems to be limiting his workload a bit here late in the season, as he hasn’t been getting deep into games in the last month, but when he has pitched, he has been solid.
Wild way to end the 10th. 👀 pic.twitter.com/BlxlSjWplU
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) September 21, 2021
It will be an all Rogers affair on the mound today, Washington, as the Nationals will answer Trevor Rogers with a Rogers of their own in Josh Rogers. Josh Rogers made his MLB debut a couple of years back for the Baltimore Orioles, and after getting beaten up pitching for Baltimore, he has actually pitched well for the Nationals this season in limited action. Rogers 2.0 has a 2.60 ERA in 3 starts for Washington and is hoping to pitch his way into the starting rotation for the Nationals next season.
So, which Rogers wins tonight? I like Trevor. As great as Josh Rogers has looked in his 3 starts with the Nats, he had a career ERA north of 8 runs prior to this season, so I am sure that this level of production isn’t going to be sustainable. As disappointing as the Marlins have been this season, they are actually decent at home, with a winning record at 40-36. The nationals are a whopping 20 games under .500 on the road, and I just don’t see them winning this game tonight with Trevor Rogers on the mound for the Fish. Give me Miami.
Money Line Parlay
Cleveland Indians -150
San Francisco Giants -105
Miami Marlins -145
$100 Bet Pays $550
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs Over 8 Runs (-110)
We are crushing souls this month on our totals plays and have been hitting parlays left and right! We will look to stay red-hot today, and that starts with jumping on the over in this game between the Twins and the Cubs. Neither of these teams are known for their ability to score runs, but with such a weak starting pitching matchup in this one, something tells me that runs are going to come early and often.
Alec Mills has been inconsistent for the Cubs, giving up at least 4 earned runs in 3 of his last 5 starts. And on the other side of the mound, Griffin Jax has been downright awful for the Twins in the last several weeks, as he has gotten hammered for 32 runs in his last 6 starts, in just 31 innings. All we really need for this game to sail to the over is one of these guys to be bad, and if both of them end up getting lit up, this game could end up going WAY over.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs (-110)
You gotta love the Los Angeles Angels. The Halos have been going over their posted total with regularity this season, as they either score a bunch of runs and push the game to the over, or their joke of a pitching staff gets blown up, and the other team pushes the game to the over. Yesterday it was the pitching staff that sent the game to the over, as the Astros plated 10 runs in a blowout 10-0 victory. Will it be the lineup that puts this game over or the pitching staff? At the end of the day, who cares? As long as one of them does the job we are getting paid, give me the over today in the City of Angels.
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9.5 Runs (-110)
This total feels high if you ask me. Luke Weaver has been fantastic at home this season, with a 3-1 record and a 1.95 ERA. And while Jesse Chavez is a thousand years old and has mostly been a reliever in his career, he has pitched well this season, too, with a 2.67 ERA. These aren’t your typical shutdown starting pitchers, but they are solid. And a game total of 9.5 runs is high if both of your starters are going to be at least serviceable. This one stays under, but just barely.
Game Total Parlay
Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs Over 8 Runs -110
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs -110
Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks Under 9.5 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Toronto Blue Jays (-105) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Toronto Blue Jays are making a big push for the playoffs, but they hit a road bump last night, as they lost to the Tampa Bay Rays. The loss, coupled with wins from the Yankees and Mariners, has tightened the race for the AL wild card and entering play today, the Blue Jays are just a half of a game ahead of New York for the final playoff spot in the league.
Toronto will get another shot at the 1st place Rays today, with rookie sensation Alek Manoah getting the start. Manoah has been a huge addition to the Blue Jays rotation, and Toronto seems to always win when he pitches. Toronto has won 8 of his last 9 starts, including his last 5, and on the year, they are an impressive 13-4 in his 17 starts. Beating the Rays is never an easy task, but this kid is more than up to the challenge.
We have SIX players with 20+ home runs! #TBJHomers pic.twitter.com/hVzE9M6lyU
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 21, 2021
Tampa Bay would love to play spoiler and knock the Blue Jays out of the wild card spot with a series sweep, and they will turn to Drew Rasmussen tonight at home. It seems like the Rays can turn just about anybody into a star on the mound, and Drew Rasmussen has quickly gone from solid reliever into superstar starter in a hurry! The Rays have won 5 of his last 6 starts, and while he isn’t a guy that is going to get deep into games, he has done a remarkable job of getting guys out and setting his team up for success.
This is a razor think game, but Alek Manoah has been too good not to want to back him as an underdog, even if that means he has to beat the best team in the American League to cash our ticket. The Jays have the best record in the game this month, and after dropping a tough one yesterday, I see them getting right back on track tonight in Tampa Bay.
New York Mets (+120) at Boston Red Sox
The Boston Red Sox are clinging to a game and a half lead over the Toronto Blue Jays for the 1st wild card spot in the AL, with the New York Yankees just another half of a game back. The A’s and Mariners are within striking distance as well, and that makes each and every one of these final games important. Boston has put a little bit of distance between themselves and the rest of the pack, but they have basically no room for error, which has to be petrifying for Red Sox fans today, with Eduardo Rodriguez getting the start.
E-Rod has an atrocious 6.32 ERA this year at Fenway Park, and if it weren’t for all of the run support he has gotten this year, he would be having a terrible season. But for whatever reason, the Red Sox always seem to score runs for Rodriguez, and that has masked his struggles to get guys out. But I don’t know if those runs are coming today against Mets starter Marcus Stroman.
Javy’s doing big things in the Big Apple 👀🔥
h/t @ben_verlander pic.twitter.com/Lald2NuFyO
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 20, 2021
Stroman is having a nice year for the Mets with a 2.88 ERA. He does his best work on the road, with a 2.81 ERA, and with the Mets in complete desperation mode at this point, I see New York riding him until the wheels fall off today in Beantown. I am fully aware of how bad the Mets have been on the road and how great the Red Sox have been at home, but I just can’t seem to justify any way that Eduardo Rodriguez is such a big favorite in this game. He hasn’t made it out of the 4th inning in his last 2 home starts, getting smashed for 11 runs in just 7.1 innings, and if he gets lit up like that again tonight, Marcus Stroman is going to do more than enough to lead his team to a much-needed road win.
Seattle Mariners (+120) at Oakland Athletics
It is looking like this season is going to end just so many have over the years for the mariners, in disappointment. Despite being in the playoff conversation all season long, the Mariners are 3 games back with only 12 games left to play. While it wouldn’t be impossible for the Mariners to sneak into the playoffs, it is going to be tough.
That being said, this team doesn’t have an ounce of quit in them, as they are still playing hard. We saw that last night when Seattle upset the Oakland Athletics in game 1 of this huge series with the A’s. No team with a winning record has been as good as the mariners this season when it comes to winning as underdogs, and last night’s win in Oakland was the 58th time Seattle cashed a dog money ticket.
gg, gn#SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/65E3ihYYmW
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 21, 2021
I like the Mariners to pick up number 59 tonight, with their ace, Marco Gonzalez, on the bump. Marco had a brutal start to the season, but he has really picked it up in the 2nd half of the season. Seattle had won 9 of his previous 11 starts before losing his last outing against the Boston Red Sox, and I see him pitching well again tonight on the road. Oakland starter Paul Blackburn isn’t the type of guy you want to be starting in such an impactful game, and his 7.94 ERA in 3 starts this month tells me that he isn’t up to the task at hand. I am taking the Mariners.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays -105
New York Mets +120
Seattle Mariners +120
$100 Bet Pays $945
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-210)
How lopsided is this series between the Pirates and Reds? Pittsburgh jumped out to a 5-0 lead yesterday, and the Reds still managed to blow the game out and win 9-5. Cincy is 3 games back of the streaking St. Louis Cardinals, and it was a win that they had to have, and they went out and got it despite the bad start. I don’t see the Reds getting off to another slow start tonight, as Tyler Mahle has owned the Pirates this season, with a 3-0 record and 1.47 ERA in 3 starts. I expect more of the same tonight as Mahle rolls, and the Reds win this one going away.
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees -1.5 Runs (-135)
We got burned by the Yankees yesterday as we had them on the run line, and they won 4-3. But that was a bit of a bad beat, as the Bronx Bombers were up 4-0 before blowing the cover late in the game. I see new York making up for that disappointment in this game, with Jordan Montgomery taking the mound. Montgomery has been great at home all season long and matched up against Dane Dunning, who was shipped to the bullpen after pitching poorly in the starting rotation for Texas, this game has all of the makings of a blowout.
I love me some Dane dunning, but he is 0-6 with a 6.65 ERA on the road this season, and this is too tough of a spot not to expect him to get hammered. The only difference between today’s game and yesterday’s is that when New York takes a huge lead early, they aren’t going to give it away late and cost us our bet.
St. Louis Cardinals (+180) at Milwaukee Brewers
We nailed a huge underdog winner yesterday when he took the St. Louis Cardinals against the Milwaukee Brewers. Yesterday’s bet came as I felt that the Cardinals, the hottest team in the league right now, just shouldn’t be that big of underdogs, no matter who they are playing. That same thought rings true again today, as the Cardinals have won 12 of their last 13 games, and I love being able to get them again as huge dogs.
Say it once, say it a million times…
YADI IS CLUTCH! pic.twitter.com/0gD8cWwe9X
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 21, 2021
Yeah, I hate betting against Brandon Woodruff, but I hated betting against Freddy Peralta last night too, and that didn’t cost me a bet. Jake Woodford has been decent, and even with as great as Brandon Woodruff has been this season, they have lost both of his starts this month, and they are just 4-8 in his last 12 games. I know wins don’t carry the clout that they used to for a starting pitcher, but the Brewers just don’t win nearly as much as they should when Brandon Woodruff pitches and this line is grossly mispriced. Give me the Cardinals as they stay red-hot tonight at Miller Park.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
Cincinnati Reds -210
New York Yankees -1.5 Runs -135
St. Louis Cardinals +180
$100 Bet Pays $720
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!