I know most of you out there are still riding high after yesterday’s full slate of NFL action, and while football certainly took center stage yesterday, today it is Major League Baseball’s turn in the limelight. The schedule isn’t jam-packed today, with only 8 games on the slate, but even with a lighter than usual schedule, we have several high-profile games on tap that have all kinds of playoff implications.
In the American League, the Houston Astros are trying to hold off the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics for the AL West Division crown as they head to Texas to play the Rangers. The Yankees host the Twins, desperately needing to snap out of their recent funk. The Rays and Blue Jays play in Toronto, with both squads looking poised for the postseason and the Mariners and Red Sox square off in Seattle, with the winner of this series looking to be in great shape for the 2nd wild card in the league.
Yesterday was incredible. What was the best game you have watched this year? pic.twitter.com/N1OXsHvqCa
— MLB (@MLB) September 13, 2021
Over in the National League, the Cardinals and Mets play a huge game, with both teams sitting just below the cut line for the National League playoffs. The DBacks are in LA to play the Dodgers, with the Boys in Blue trying to catch the San Francisco Giants for 1st place in the NL West. The marquee game of the day in the NL comes to us from the Bay Area, as the Giants welcome the San Diego Padres to town, with the G-Men trying to hold off the Dodgers for the division title and the Padres trying to break their tie with the Cincinnati Reds for the 2nd wild card. As always, we will be right here with you today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays (-130)
Just a couple of weeks ago, it looked like the Toronto Blue Jays were done for the season. But what a difference a couple of days can make, as not only are the Blue Jays right back in the mix for the postseason in the American League, they are on fire, and they are quickly becoming a team that nobody is going to want to play in the postseason. The Blue Jays aren’t just winning games, they are obliterating teams.
Toronto is 11-1 this month and they have scored at least 8 runs in 7 of those 12 games. In their last series, they completely embarrassed the Baltimore Orioles, scoring an absurd 44 runs in the final 3 games of the 4-game series. The Jays are averaging nearly 9 runs per game this month, which is 2 full runs higher than any other MLB team during that span.
Our 47 runs over the weekend is a franchise record for a 4-game series 😱 #TBJHomers pic.twitter.com/eQphpQbGcK
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 13, 2021
The Blue Jays host the 1st place Tampa Bay Rays tonight in game 1 of a 3-game series, and they might not even need all of the firepower tonight, as they have rookie sensation Alek Manoah on the mound. Manoah has been a big addition to the Blue Jays rotation, and his 3.71 ERA is more than respectable for a rookie pitching in the hitter-happy American League East. At home, he has been even better, with a 3-0 record and 2.97 ERA.
Tampa Bay will answer Manoah with opener Collin McHugh. McHugh has been fantastic for the Rays, both out of the bullpen and in this opener role, and while he may not be in the game for very long, he should be solid while he is on the mound, even against these hard-hitting Blue Jays. When faced with a team in the middle of a hot streak like the Blue Jays are right now, you have 2 choices. You can jump on the bandwagon and hope that they stay hot, or you can get out of the way.
Trying to fade a team that can’t lose is a recipe for disaster, and I won’t play with fire tonight in Toronto. I don’t love having to bet against the Rays, as they are probably the best team in the American League right now, but the Blue Jays are just too hot not to love being able to back them at this price. The Rays are going to win a game in this series at some point, but it won’t be this one tonight with Alek Manoah pitching. Give me the Blue Jays as small home field favorites as they run their winning streak to 12 of 13 and continue their push towards the postseason.
St. Louis Cardinals (-115) at New York Mets
Adam Wainwright isn’t going to win the Cy Young Award in the National League this year, but if you ask me, no pitcher in the game has been more important to their team this season than Waino. Wainwright has put this Cardinals team on his back, as he has led them to the cusp of contention in the National League, as they are just a single game back of the Reds and Padres for the final playoff spot in the National League.
The Cardinals have won 9 of his last 10 starts, and he regularly gets deep into games, giving the overworked Cardinals bullpen a much-needed breather every 5th day. Wainwright just turned 40 years old last month and shows no signs of slowing down as he is 3rd in the majors in innings pitched this season.
St. Louis is hoping that he has a little left in the gas tank tonight as they head to New York to play the Mets. The Mets are just 3-games back of that final playoff spot as well, so they are certainly by no means out of the race despite a 2nd half collapse. New York will start veteran Rich Hill tonight, in a must-win spot.
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 13, 2021
Hill was brought over from the Tampa Bay Rays earlier this season and had been respectable for the Mets, with a 3.72 ERA in 8 starts. This month, Hill is showing that Wainwright isn’t the only guy that can still get guys out in his 40’s as he has a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts. The Mets haven’t looked for Hill to get too deep into games, but he has pitched 6 innings in his last 2 starts, so he won’t be on a short leash tonight at home.
This is going to be a high-intensity game with a playoff-like atmosphere. The loser of this series, especially if it is New York, is going to find themselves in a very tough spot with only a handful of games left in the regular season. This game means a lot to both teams, and everyone knows it. It won’t be easy, but I see the Cardinals finding a way to grind out a win tonight on the road. Wainwright has just been too good to deny at this point, and even with Rich Hill showing signs of life recently, this is still a mismatch on the mound. Give me the Red Birds in a thriller!
San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants (-110)
What is going on with the San Diego Padres? They spent much of the 1st half of the year looking like one of the best teams in baseball. But then injuries and inconsistent play led to struggles, and after missing out on several high-profile trade targets at the trade deadline, most notably, Max Scherzer, who went to their hated rivals, the LA Dodgers, the Padres cratered. San Diego went from division title hopefuls, to out of the postseason picture altogether, in a hurry.
The Friars have stopped the bleeding recently and are now tied with the Reds for the 2nd wild card, with the Cardinals, Mets, and Phillies all within striking distance. The schedule has been brutal for San Diego, and after getting swept by the Dodgers to start this road trip, they will be in San Francisco today to face the team with the best record in the majors, the Giants. Looking ahead on the schedule for San Diego, the savage schedule continues all the way through to the end of the regular season, with games against the Giants, Cardinals, Braves, and Dodgers. That makes this game that much more important.
Fly The WWWWWWW#SFGiants | #ResilientSF pic.twitter.com/EKc9CgXLAP
— SFGiants (@SFGiants) September 12, 2021
For most of his long career, when Yu Darvish gets the start, fans of his team are excited, as the guy is filthy. But Darvish just hasn’t pitched well in the 2nd half of the season for San Diego, and he can’t be trusted to deliver stellar results right now. Since the All-Star break, Darvish is just 1-6 with an ERA north of 6 runs. On the road, he has been terrible all year, and the Padres haven’t won a road game with Darvish pitching since May!
The Giants will go with an opener tonight in career reliever Dominic Leone. Leone hasn’t been used to start games very often this season, but he has been excellent for the Giants, with a 1.48 ERA. Expect Leone to get through the 1st inning and maybe the 2nd before giving way to the Giants bullpen, which currently leads the Major Leagues in staff ERA.
It is going to be an epic disappointment if the Padres miss the playoffs, as they have a boatload of talent on this roster. But with how brutal the schedule lays out, I think that is what is going to end up happening. They couldn’t win against the Dodgers in their last series, and I don’t think they are going to be able to win against the Giants in this series either. The Padres have actually been awful on the road all year, with a 30-37 record, and being forced to play in San Francisco, against a Giants squad that has the 2nd best record in the league, is just asking too much. The Giants will take this one and they show outrageous value at even money.
Money Line Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays -130
St. Louis Cardinals -115
San Francisco Giants -110
$100 Bet Pays $632
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners Over 8 Runs (-110)
We are going to dive deeper into this game here in a couple of minutes, but before I break down my pick on the side in this game between the Mariners and the Red Sox, I will give you a play on what I see as a far too low total. Boston Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez stinks and is capable of blowing up and sending this game to the over all by himself. E-Rod has an ERA of 5.15 this year, and in games where he has started, there have been 8 or more runs scored in 20 of his 27 outings.
Logan Gilbert has been any better, as the rookie hit a bit of a rookie wall in August, posting an ERA above 9 runs for the month. He has been better this month, but with such a low total, this game could end up going over twice over. I am jumping all over the over as both of these starters are capable of getting lit up.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 Runs (-110)
There are 3 things guaranteed in life. Death, taxes and Clayton Kershaw being nasty at home in Dodger’s Stadium. Kersh is getting up there in years, and while he isn’t the same guy that he was in his prime, at home, he continues to be elite, with a 2.79 ERA. Against these Diamondbacks, who have been one of the lowest scoring teams in the game since the All-Star break, it wouldn’t shock me if he shut them completely down. In his lone start at home against Arizona this year, he allowed just 2 earned runs on only 2 hits in 6 innings of work.
The DBacks rarely ever win when Zac Gallen pitches, but it’s not really his fault, as he has actually been pretty good. Gallen has held opposing teams to 3 earned runs or fewer in each of his last 4 starts and he should be serviceable tonight on the road. Arizona isn’t going to win the game, but you can pencil Gallen in for 5-6 strong innings of work. That production, combined with Kershaw’s domination, should be more than enough to keep this game under this inflated total.
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets Under 8 Runs (-110)
We already talked about how great Adam Wainwright has been this season, and even old man Rich Hill has been stepping it up recently. These playoff-type games are almost always going to be lower scoring, as teams are going to play for 1 run more often, and they are going to do everything they can to limit big innings. Neither of these teams are great at the plate, and with a couple of veteran starters that know what needs to be done on the mound tonight, I see this game as a 3-2 contest. I’ll take the under.
Game Total Parlay
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners Over 8 Runs -110
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 Runs -110
St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets Under 8 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Miami Marlins (-105) at Washington Nationals
You can file this game under the somebody has to win tab. The Marlins and Nationals are both playing out the stick of disappointing seasons, and games like this one can sometimes be hard to predict. When neither team really cares about winning all that much, you can see some weird things happen. But with Sandy Alcantara pitching for Miami, I like a play on the Fish as road dogs.
Alcantara has quietly put together a great season, as he is 16th in the game in both ERA and strikeouts and 15th in WHIP. The Marlins struggles have kept his name out of the headlines, but he has been very good. He is coming off one of the best starts of his season in his last outing, tossing a complete game masterpiece against the New York Mets, allowing just a single earned run while racking up an impressive 14 Ks.
Studies show that when you treat your bat with love, you hit homers.
These are just the facts. 😌 pic.twitter.com/39TSCF5lxY
— Miami Marlins (@Marlins) September 12, 2021
Nationals starter Paulo Espino started the season pitching out of the Nats bullpen, but since being converted into a starter, he has been bad. The Nationals have lost 10 of his last 13 starts, and they are going to lose again tonight at home. Miami has been terrible on the road, but the Nationals are awful at home, and I see Alcantara leading his team to a win tonight in hostile territory.
Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners (+105)
Home underdogs are my favorite plays in Major League Baseball betting, and no team has been better this season as home dogs than the Seattle Mariners have been. The M’s are a sizzling hot 28-16 as home dogs this season, the most wins in the majors. You would think that eventually, the books would wake up and quit making them underdogs so often at home, but I guess not, as they are still getting juice tonight even against an awful starter like Eduardo Rodriguez.
JARRED. CRUSHED. pic.twitter.com/txzCcPy6cp
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 12, 2021
I say it all of the time, but you don’t have to fully understand a bad line to exploit it and take advantage of it. Boston has played really poorly on the road in the last several weeks, and I just don’t see what the books like about their chances tonight in Seattle. I have been hammering the Mariners as home dogs all season long, and I will use an if it ain’t broke don’t fix it mentality tonight and once against back the Mariners as home underdogs.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
Miami Marlins -105
Seattle Mariners +105
$100 Bet Pays $401
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Minnesota Twins at New York Yankees (-180)
Will the New York Yankees find themselves in the playoffs at the end of the month? Conventional wisdom says yes, as this roster is loaded with talent, but the Bronx Bombers have been in free fall since late last month. New York has lost 12 of their last 15 games, and as they welcome the Twins to town, they know they have to win this series. I think New York finds a way to notch a win today with Lucas Gil pitching, as Gil has been the late-season spark that the Yankees have needed.
Gil has a 1.42 ERA in 4 starts for the Yankees, and at age 23, he should be fresh and ready to fire tonight against the disappointing Twins. Even if Gil isn’t overly sharp, I still like New York, as Twins starter John Gant has not been good, as he just pitched against the Yankees, getting shelled for 4 runs, all earned, in just 3.1 innings pitched. This team is too good to lose for too much longer, and they draw a soft matchup tonight at home, and I see them finding a way to win the game.
Houston Astros (-190) at Texas Rangers
Similar to the Yankees, the Astros haven’t been themselves recently, but they find a soft spot in the schedule today in Texas, and I see them winning this game. Jake Odorizzi isn’t a world beater at this point in his career, but the Astros have won 3 of his last 4 starts, and he has held teams to 2 earned runs or fewer in all 4 of those games.
Spencer Howard is the type of guy that only an out of contention team like the Rangers would be starting, and his home stat line of 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA tells me that he is in for a long night tonight in Arlington. Houston will hammer the youngster, and Jake Odorizzi should be just good enough for the Astros to coast to a much-needed victory.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs (-135)
Our final play of the day comes to us from the City of Angels, as the Dodgers host the DBacks. We already talked about how great Clayton Kershaw has always been at home, and even though I see this game as low scoring, I still love the Dodgers to win this game by multiple runs. Covering that run and a half is never easy in a low scoring game, but if the DBacks aren’t able to score, and that may very well end up being the case, the Dodgers are going to win this game by multiple runs for sure.
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 12, 2021
Arizona is 2-13 in Zac Gallen’s last 15 starts, and of those 13 losses, 11 of them have come by multiple runs. This game has blowout written all over it, and I will back the Boys in Blue at home, laying the run line at an attractive price.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
New York Yankees -180
Houston Astros -190
Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 Runs -135
$100 Bet Pays $414
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!