I know it might be hard to believe, but we now have just 2 full weeks left of regular season Major League Baseball action. With the regular season set to end on Sunday, October 3rd, the final push for the playoffs has gotten intense. In the American League, it appears that each of the 3 division titles are all but wrapped up as the Rays, White Sox, and Astros all have comfortable leads.
While the divisions are set, the wild card in the American League is up for grabs, with the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays currently occupying the final playoff spots in the league, and the New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, and Seattle Mariners all within shouting distance. That is 5 teams for 2 spots, and these last 2 weeks are going to be exciting!
Never tell them the odds. pic.twitter.com/RbfmOarXlw
— MLB (@MLB) September 20, 2021
If you thought that the race in the AL was an exciting one, wait until you see where we stand in the National League! Both the NL East and NL West Divisions have yet to be decided, as the Braves are trying to hold off the Phillies and Mets in the East, and the Giants are trying to keep the LA Dodgers at bay out West. The 2nd place finisher from the NL West has the first wild card spot locked down, but there are 4 teams fighting for that final playoff spot in the league, with just 3.5 games separating the St. Louis Cardinals from the rest of the pack, including the Reds, Phillies, Padres, and Mets.
You hear a lot about must-win games in the regular season, and most of the time, that ends up being overhyped hyperbole, but right now, all of these teams still in the hunt find themselves in must-win situations with just a handful of games left to play. As always, we will be right there with you today, delivering max value, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Indians Game 1 (-155)
Late in the season, there are 2 types of out of contention teams. Some of the teams are just happy to play out the stick of their disappointing season and start looking towards next year. These are teams like the Orioles, Pirates, and Rangers that are well out of contention and several years away from being a threat in the postseason. But not all out of contention teams are the same, as some of the teams that won’t be playing in the playoffs are nearing the end of multi-year rebuilds and are still playing hard and trying to win games late in the year, even if they know it won’t end with a spot in the playoffs.
Both the Kansas City Royals and Cleveland Indians fall into this category of teams, as despite the disappointing results, neither of these teams have given up, and they have enjoyed playing the spoiler role. On paper, this series doesn’t really “matter” to either of these teams, but don’t tell that to these players, as they are going to be giving it a full effort tonight in both dugouts.
José Ramírez put a cherry on top of yesterday’s 11-1 win with a 4-4 day at the plate.
Hosey scored 7 runs the final two games at Yankee Stadium this season.#OurCLE pic.twitter.com/pTFUh0HlKN
— Cleveland Indians (@Indians) September 20, 2021
Triston McKenzie has used the 2nd half of the season to establish himself as a legit MLB-ready starter. McKenzie was awful early in the season but has found his stride recently, and going back to August 1st, he has worked at least 6 innings in each of his 7 starts and has an ERA below 2 runs to show for it. The 24-year-old rookie hasn’t allowed more than 1 earned run in any of his last 5 starts, and the Indians have taken advantage of that solid production, with wins in 4 of those 5 games.
Royals starter Brady Singer made his Big League debut last season, and after a promising rookie year, he has hit a bit of a sophomore slump this season, with a 4-10 record and 4.85 ERA. Wins have been hard to come by in Kansas City this season, and their record with Singer on the mound certainly leaves something to be desired, to say the least, as they are just 8-17 in his 25 starts.
Triston McKenzie has owned the Kansas City Royals so far in his short MLB career. McKenzie had more appearances and innings pitched against KC than any other team, and his 0.83 ERA has been outstanding. It is hard not to love the Indians in game 1 of this scheduled double-dip, as McKenzie could very well go out and pitch the entire game, with it scheduled for only 7 innings. I will lay a little wood and back the home team Indians.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds (-165)
A couple of weeks ago, it looked like the Cincinnati Reds were going to storm their way straight to the postseason. With teams like the Padres and Mets struggling, the door was wide open for the Reds to slide into the final playoff spot in the National League. But despite a fairly soft schedule, the Reds haven’t been able to string together wins this month, and entering play today, they find themselves on the outside looking in for the playoffs as they trail the St. Louis Cardinals by 3 games.
The Reds catch a nice break today, as they open up a 3-game series with the last place Pittsburgh Pirates. Cincy knows that they can’t let winnable games like these ones pass them by, and looking forward to the end of the regular season, 10 of the Reds last 12 games come against the Nationals and Pirates, giving them the chance that they need to get back into the mix before the end of the season.
Here is how the Reds will line up Monday night against the Pirates.@PNCBank pic.twitter.com/pfF8ROSZxM
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 20, 2021
Vladimir Gutierrez gets the nod tonight for the Reds, and Cincy fans are hoping that he can get back on track after a mediocre month of September that has seen him post a 6.00 ERA in 3 starts. Gutierrez was roughed up by these Pirates in his last start, but when he pitched against them at home earlier this year, he dominated, working 6 innings of 1-run ball.
Dillon Peters isn’t as good of a pitcher as he has looked like in the last month or so for the Pirates. Peters had an ERA of nearly 6 runs prior to this season, and while he has looked great in his 5 late season starts for the Buccos, the long-term data tells me that this guy just isn’t very good.
Peters looked great against the Reds in his last outing, but I don’t see lightning striking twice for him tonight on the road. The Pirates are a whopping 30 games under .500 on the road this season, and with this game meaning so much for the Reds, and essentially nothing for the Pirates, I am backing the home team.
Washington Nationals (-110) at Miami Marlins
Is there a team more disappointing in the National League than the Miami Marlins? I would put the San Diego Padres at a similar level of disappointment as the Marlins, but the Padres could still sneak their way into the playoffs, and Miami can’t, so right now, if I had to pick a single team as the most disappointing in the league, it would be Miami. The Marlins made an unlikely run to the postseason last year, and heading into this season, they felt that they had a shot at competing for the NL East Division title.
Instead of contending for the division titles in the NL East, the Marlins are fighting it out with the Washington Nationals for last place. The move from Miami that sent Starling Marte to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo was a move that signaled that Miami had given up on the season and was looking towards the future. The early returns show us that Miami got the worse of that deal, as Marte famously became the 1st player ever to steal 20 bags in both leagues in the same season, and Luzardo has been bad for Miami.
Let’s g000000000!@budweiserusa //#NATITUDE pic.twitter.com/H34KDkEiHN
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 19, 2021
Luzardo has an ERA of 6.75 in 9 starts for the Fish, and in his 2 outings against these Nationals, he has been even worse, with an 0-2 record and 9.00 ERA. In just 9 innings of work against the Nats, Luzardo has allowed 9 runs on a borderline absurd 17 hits and 3 walks. The Marlins lost those games with a combined score of 13-3, and I see them losing again tonight at home.
Erick Fedde isn’t known as a guy that is going to shut teams down, but for whatever reason, he loves to pitch against these Miami Marlins. Fedde has made 3 starts against Miami this season and is 2-0 with a 1.04 ERA to show for it. 2 of those starts have come in the last month, and Fedde has been stellar, working 11.1 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs and striking out 18.
The Nationals stink on the road, and while that does give me a little bit of pause, this will be the 3rd time in a month’s time that Luzardo and Fedde have pitched against each other, and the Nationals have dominated both games. Give me Washington at even money tonight on the road in South Beach.
Money Line Parlay
Cleveland Indians Game 1 -155
Cincinnati Reds -165
Washington Nationals -110
$100 Bet Pays $505
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies Under 8 Runs (-110)
You might not know the names Ranger Suarez or John Means just yet, but you will. Means was pitching his brains out early in the season before an injury cost him a big chunk of his season. He was a little rusty when he first returned, but he is back to pitching well again here in September, with a 3.06 ERA in 3 starts. A healthy John Means is one of the more underrated starters in the American League.
Ranger Suarez has come out of nowhere to be a dominating force for the Phillies this season, and if Philly does end up making the playoffs, this career reliever is going to get a lot of the credit. Suarez was pitching well in relief, but since moving into the starting rotation, this kid has been basically unhittable, with a sub-2-run ERA. I expect both guys to pitch well tonight and for this game to stay well under the total.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs (-110)
Ah, a tried-and-true classic, taking the over in the Angels games. LA has this great combination of weak starting pitching, a high scoring lineup, and an awful bullpen that has led to many of their games going over this year. Matched up today against the Houston Astros, who lead the Major Leagues in runs scored per game, I see another high scoring game on the horizon.
I see the Astros scoring early and often against Angels starter Jaime Barria, who last pitched at home against the Astros in August and lasted just 3 innings before getting pulled, allowing 3 earned runs on 7 hits and a walk. And even with as good as Framber Valdez has been much of the year, in September, he has gotten roughed up to the tune of 9 runs in just 11 innings pitched, as he has completely lost control of his command, giving up 12 hits and 7 walks across 2 starts. This one goes over, and it might end up going WAY over.
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 Runs (-110)
The St. Louis Cardinals are quickly becoming a team that nobody is going to want to play in the postseason. The Red Birds have won 10 of their last 11 games, and they are getting the job done with pitching and defense. St. Louis has held opposing teams to 2 runs or fewer in 5 of those 11 games, as they have been stingy on the mound. Jake Woodford has been solid for St. Louis, and we all know what Freddy Peralta has been able to do for the Brew Crew. This game has 3-2 written all over it, and I will jump on the under in what should be a very competitive game.
Game Total Parlay
Baltimore Orioles at Philadelphia Phillies Under 8 Runs -110
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels Over 9 Runs -110
St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers Under 8 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
St. Louis Cardinals (+185) at Milwaukee Brewers
We just talked about how I feel this game today between the Brewers and the Cardinals is going to be tightly contested, and I almost can’t believe the betting line, as it is way out of whack. I mean, I get it, Freddy Peralta is nasty, but he was looking shaky prior to his last outing, as he had a 3-game stretch where he pitched just 7.2 innings and allowed 10 runs. He redeemed himself in his last start, blanking the Detroit Tigers in 6 innings, but I don’t see any compelling reason to have him and his Brewers laying north of -200 in this game, against the Cardinals that are on fire.
Jake Woodford got his shot as a regular every 5th day starter for the Cardinals a little over a month ago, and he has not wasted it. In his 6 starts, he has held the opposing team to under 3 earned runs in 5 of them, and in his lone start against Milwaukee, he was fantastic, working 5.1 innings without giving up a single earned run on only 2 hits and no walks.
You know what this means…#HAPPYFLIGHT ✈️ pic.twitter.com/WNcqmh5C8N
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 19, 2021
The Brewers should be favored in this game, but the books have taken this one too far. When you have a team like St. Louis that is scorching hot, they should never be getting this much juice, no matter who they are playing against. Plays like this one are always going to be high variance, but they are equally high value. Give me the St. Louis Cardinals as jumbo underdogs tonight at Miller Park in Milwaukee.
Seattle Mariners (+155) at Oakland Athletics
It is looking like the American League East Division is going to snatch both of the wild card spots in the AL, but if the East does struggle down the stretch, the 2nd place team from the AL West is lurking just a couple of games back. The Mariners and Athletics play 7 times between now and the end of the regular season, and whichever team wins those series is going to have a real shot at breaking through with a playoff birth.
This game feels a lot like the one above between the Brewers and the Cardinals, as I understand why the A’s are favored, I just feel like the number is inflated. Tyler Anderson was a seemingly underwhelming add at the trade deadline for Seattle, but he has gotten the last laugh, as he has pitched great for the M’s. Anderson has a 3.67 ERA in 9 starts for the Mariners, and that production has led the M’s to wins in 5 out of his last 7 starts.
.@M_Hanny17’s 34th is a solo shot! #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/JjQ0tcCJf1
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 19, 2021
Sean Manaea gets the start for Oakland, hoping to find some consistency, as he has been all over the place. Manaea has been hot and cold for Oakland, as he has gotten rocked for at least 5 earned runs in 4 of his last 8 starts. Manaea has pitched very well against Seattle this season, but both of those starts came earlier in the year, and with his results taking a deep dip recently, the Mariners are ready to upset the A’s tonight on the road. In my estimation, this game is close to a coin flip, and in a game that could go either way, I always want to be on the side getting juice, not laying it. Give me the Mariners.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
St. Louis Cardinals +185
Seattle Mariners +155
$100 Bet Pays $727
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Toronto Blue Jays (-130) at Tampa Bay Rays
There is going to be at least 1 good team that gets left out of the playoffs this season in the AL East Division. With the Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Yankees all fighting for 2 spots, there just isn’t room for all 3 of them! The Blue Jays are hoping that they aren’t the team that gets left out, and they have been surging towards the playoffs.
Toronto is a smoking hot 15-3 this month, the best record in the American League during that span, and they set out on their final road trip of the season tonight as they head to Tampa Bay for game 1 of a 3-game set with the Rays. Toronto currently controls their own destiny, with a game and a half lead over the Yankees, and a series win in Tampa Bay would be a huge boost to their postseason chances.
We’re NINETEEN games over .500 🔥
Goodnight, #BlueJays fans! pic.twitter.com/XTOPW3wImn
— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) September 20, 2021
The Jays will start the current favorite to take home the Cy Young Award in the AL, Robbie Ray, tonight in the series opener. Ray has been great all season long, but he has really turned things up in the 2nd half, with an ERA under 2 runs since the All-Star break. No disrespect to Ray’s starter Shane Baz, who will be making his MLB debut tonight, as this kid is going to be a superstar one day, but Robbie Ray is a superstar now, and the side to back in this one.
Houston Astros -1.5 Runs (-135) at Los Angeles Angels
If you have been a regular reader of my parlay of the day betting picks, you will know that I love taking the Houston Astros on the run line. Why? Well, they just don’t win very many games by 1 run. Houston only has 18 wins by 1 run this season, as either, they win by multiple runs, or they lose. With this strong trend, I rarely ever take the Astros on the money line, as a play on the run line yields similar win/loss results at a much better price.
This game is going to be high scoring, and it is always easier to cover the run line when there are lots of runs up on the board. Only the Chicago White Sox have covered the run line more than the Astros have this season, and I will stick with the hot hand and back Houston laying that run and a half tonight in LA.
Atlanta Braves (-200) at Arizona Diamondbacks
Sometimes you just need to pick the low hanging fruit. That is the case today, as the Atlanta Braves can’t feel great about where they stand with just 2 weeks left of the regular season. Atlanta is sitting in 1st place in the NL East Division, with a 2-game lead over the Philadelphian Phillies, which is a nice spot to be in, but this series against Arizona is the final soft series of the year for the Braves, as they play the Padres, Phillies, and Mets to finish out the regular season.
On the flip side, the Phillies get to play the Orioles, Pirates, Braves, and Marlins. That soft schedule for Philly tells me that the Braves are in must-win mode this week in Arizona. Huascar Ynoa missed 3 months’ worth of action with a broken hand earlier this season, but he is back now and pitching well.
And matched up against DBacks starter Humberto Mejia, who has just 21 career Big League innings on his resume and a 5.14 ERA to show for it, this is a mismatch on the mound. The Braves have to have this one, and I see them getting the job done tonight on the road.
Texas Rangers at New York Yankees -1.5 Runs (-140)
Our final play of the day comes to us from the Bronx as the New York Yankees host the Texas Rangers. We have talked at length today about the dog fight we are seeing in the AL East Division, and the Yankees catch a huge break from the schedulers today, with this game with the last place Texas Rangers. While the Blue Jays are forced to play the Rays, and the Red Sox are playing an in-contention Mets team, the Yankees get to feast on the cellar-dwelling Rangers.
Back at it in the BX. #SquadUp pic.twitter.com/WjsMFQOls9
— New York Yankees (@Yankees) September 18, 2021
The Rangers will start rookie A.J. Alexy, who got his first bitter taste of the show in his last outing, getting smashed by the Houston Astros for 6 runs, all earned, on 4 hits and 4 walks, in just 3.2 innings. With New York starting upstart Nestor Cortes Jr, who has a sparkling 1.93 ERA at home, this game feels like a blowout. I very rarely take teams on the run line, as the forbidden fruit can be tempting, yet hard to win, and home teams on the run line are even rarer. But this game is a mismatch in every way imaginable, and I see the Bronx Bombers bombing all over the Texas Rangers tonight at home.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays -130
Houston Astros -1.5 Runs -135
Atlanta Braves -200
New York Yankees -1.5 Runs -140
$100 Bet Pays $792
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!